Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:11:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7eb3…2a32 sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 203d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$173 (-4%) realized −$173 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%12W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$187
7 days−$700
14 days−$167
30 days−$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$51
other 24% −$161
tech 16% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 46% 46% -41.3%
≤30d 19 +24.6% +12.7% 58% 58% -15.1%
≤90d 19 +24.6% +12.7% 58% 58% -15.1%
all 20 +23.7% +12.0% 60% 55% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.0% 55% -13.0%
10% +1.2% 55% -21.3%
15% -8.5% 45% -28.9%
20% -17.5% 40% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$174 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

203d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses12 / 8
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage203d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $99 +$61 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $111 +$126 +114%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $249 −$195 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $299 −$296 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $170 +$129 +76%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $100 −$99 -99%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $169 −$167 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 17 $157 −$157 -100%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 17 $185 −$185 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 17 $252 −$252 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev Jun 17 $30 +$10 +34%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $102 +$96 +95%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $74 +$228 +306%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $123 +$128 +104%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $4 +$6 +139%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $102 +$154 +151%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $252 +$107 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $450 +$139 +31%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $495 −$44 -9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 04 $693 +$55 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $99 1h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners AND Panama vs. Croa BUY 51¢ $138 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $236 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 46¢ $111 8h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 10¢ $54 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 44¢ $249 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $299 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $299 2d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 52¢ $100 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $170 2d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 52¢ $169 3d
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev SELL Medvedev 100¢ $40 6d
Set 1 Winner: Atmane vs Medvedev BUY Medvedev 74¢ $30 6d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 99¢ $198 6d
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 50¢ $102 6d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $303 6d
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 24¢ $74 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $123 7d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik 88¢ $10 7d
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 36¢ $4 7d
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Andrey Rublev 51¢ $185 7d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $252 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $157 8d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $256 8d
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 8d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $359 8d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 8d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $590 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $136.00 · 41 history records