Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eb1…16e1 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$306 (-96%) realized −$306 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-73.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% -96.5%
≤30d 8 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% -96.5%
≤90d 8 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% -96.5%
all 8 -70.7% -73.5% 12% 12% -96.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -73.5% 12% -96.5%
10% -76.0% 12% -96.9%
15% -78.4% 12% -97.2%
20% -80.5% 12% -97.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -96% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -71% · $-wt -96% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$45 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$306
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$7 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records