Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7E 0x7eaf…ffcd crypto 502 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,646 (+19%) realized +$5,649 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%144W / 357L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 63d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$1,047
sports 4% +$554
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +51.9% +37.4% 43% 41% +13.6%
≤30d 223 +6.7% -3.5% 34% 32% -3.4%
≤90d 501 -14.0% -22.2% 29% 27% -5.3%
all 501 -14.0% -22.2% 29% 27% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 27% -5.3%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 26% -14.3%
15% -36.5% 24% -22.6%
20% -42.7% 21% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$32 · ×2.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$5,649
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses144 / 357
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)501 / 502
History coverage63d ⚠
Avg bet$60
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 501 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 199 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $99 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$217 +215%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$106 +114%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$26 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $49 −$46 -94%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$78 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $73 −$40 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $89 +$54 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $297 −$108 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $298 −$89 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $457 +$155 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$29 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $213 +$141 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $190 +$37 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $89 +$55 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $628 −$428 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $215 −$122 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $85 +$683 +806%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $52 +$97 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $216 −$108 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $70 +$34 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 10 $231 +$340 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 10 $133 −$54 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $169 +$456 +271%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $93 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $203 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 10 $198 −$86 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 10 $77 −$75 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.70 · official $96.74 · 3500 history records