Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7eab…df8b sports 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate49%62W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days+$4
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$38
other 35% +$19
sports 11% −$190
economics 8% −$7
politics 4% +$7
weather 1% +$70
finance 1% +$18
crypto 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.8% -12.1% 44% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 34 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 3% -9.2%
≤90d 51 +1.5% -8.2% 51% 6% -8.9%
all 126 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 19% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 19% -9.8%
10% -22.7% 14% -18.5%
15% -30.1% 12% -26.3%
20% -37.0% 11% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses62 / 64
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage553d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 26 $17 −$3 -20%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 26 $109 −$21 -19%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $97 +$4 +4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $58 +$4 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $173 +$5 +3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $136 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $125 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $139 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $195 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $67 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $197 +$10 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $51 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $209 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $28 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $129 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $84 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $99 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $99 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $15 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $126 +$6 +5%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $112 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $111 −$3 -3%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $4 $0 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $105 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $39 +$10 +24%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $96 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $7 $0 +4%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $319 +$1 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $93 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $92 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $77 +$18 +24%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $628 +$1 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $628 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $690 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $88 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 36¢ $109 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 17h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 20h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 25h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 25h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $17 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 38h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 39h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $57 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $66 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $125 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $22 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $103 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $125 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $92 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $20 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $23 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $67 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 453 history records