Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7E 0x7eaa…834e politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$366per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$6
tech 24% −$3
other 24% −$3
sports 1% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$989) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage87d
Avg bet$366
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Jun 19 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,062 −$2 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Serie Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $1,095 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $989 $0 +0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets in April 2026? Apr 02 $118 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Mar 29 $97 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Mar 29 $11 $0 -0%
Will Juventus win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,005 55m
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market SELL No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $21 1h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $981 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 2h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $19 2h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,016 2h
Will Meituan have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $759 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $301 2h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 2h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,062 3h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $60 28h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $986 28h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 28h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $973 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 29h
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Serie SELL No 98¢ $10 29h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $19 29h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $15 29h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $730 30h
Will Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 American League Championship Serie BUY No 98¢ $10 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $269 30h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 30h
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,094 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL No 99¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 2d
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,044 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records