Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:44:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7E 0x7eaa…9403 world 19 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%8W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$4
other 31% $0
sports 13% −$9
weather 5% $0
economics 1% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+48.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.9% -6.9% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤30d 8 +171.7% +145.8% 50% 12% -8.7%
≤90d 8 +171.7% +145.8% 50% 12% -8.7%
all 19 +64.2% +48.5% 42% 5% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +48.5% 5% -10.5%
10% +34.3% 5% -19.1%
15% +21.3% 5% -26.9%
20% +9.4% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +64% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +138% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses8 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)19 / 19
History coverage472d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 19 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $48 +$3 +6%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 17 $57 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $47 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $36 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $31 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $6 $0 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 19? Mar 19 $8 $0 -6%
Florida State vs. Virginia Mar 04 $14 −$6 -43%
Nets vs. Spurs Mar 03 $16 −$2 -12%
76ers vs. Timberwolves Mar 03 $17 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say 'Hamas' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $17 $0 +2%
Villanova vs. Georgetown Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 4? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $50 17m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $48 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $37 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $5 9h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $3 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $24 13h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $15 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $6 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $42 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $47 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $47 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $47 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $15 15d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $27 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $48 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $48 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $36 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $32 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $20 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.00 (match) · 64 history records