Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7ea8…54ed crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 255d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$121 (-0%) realized −$121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate89%59W / 7L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,658per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$196
14 days+$196
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$147
politics 6% +$193
economics 3% +$2
world 2% −$143
other 2% +$2
tech 2% +$2
culture 1% −$1
finance 1% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.2% +2.4% 100% 100% +2.4%
≤30d 2 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 50% +2.1%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 75% 25% -7.9%
all 66 -0.1% -9.6% 89% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,406) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$47 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

255d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses59 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage255d
Avg bet$1,658
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 17 $1,488 +$196 +13%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? Jun 01 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 18 $1,158 −$148 -13%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 01 $735 +$5 +1%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? Mar 01 $455 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 01 $36 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 24? Feb 24 $1,015 −$128 -13%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on February 16 Feb 17 $4,191 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $4,187 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 14? Feb 15 $4,183 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on February 13? Feb 14 $4,179 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $4,171 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 10? Feb 11 $4,167 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,600 and $2,700 on February 9? Feb 10 $4,163 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 February 2-8? Feb 09 $4,156 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $60 on February 8? Feb 09 $4,152 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $4,144 +$8 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $4,093 +$49 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 5? Feb 06 $3,028 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $3,025 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jan 24 $908 +$1 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of January 19 above $365? Jan 24 $500 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $1,406 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on January 20? Jan 21 $1,405 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $1,403 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,402 +$1 +0%
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of January 12 above $285? Jan 17 $1,401 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 15? Jan 16 $1,399 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 14? Jan 15 $1,397 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,396 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,393 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 8? Jan 09 $1,392 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 6? Jan 07 $238 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on January 6? Jan 07 $1,153 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $1,389 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 4? Jan 05 $343 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 3? Jan 04 $1,386 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on November 28? Nov 29 $1,281 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $1,279 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 26? Nov 27 $1,278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 25? Nov 25 $1,277 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on November 24? Nov 25 $1,275 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? Nov 24 $1,273 +$2 +0%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $1,272 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on November 22 Nov 23 $1,272 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 13¢ $180 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 15¢ $143 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 15¢ $163 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 17¢ $394 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 23¢ $12 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 23¢ $148 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 25¢ $483 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 30¢ $15 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 30¢ $36 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 30¢ $118 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 37¢ $50 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? SELL No 41¢ $43 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 17¢ $124 1h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY No 15¢ $1,263 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April? BUY No 100¢ $35 51d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL Yes 34¢ $1,009 59d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 39¢ $1,158 59d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $34 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $150 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 77¢ $154 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 77¢ $154 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 75¢ $150 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $149 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 73¢ $146 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 72¢ $145 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 72¢ $144 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? SELL No 71¢ $142 107d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY No 70¢ $141 107d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? SELL No 99¢ $208 107d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 1st? BUY No 99¢ $209 107d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records