Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7ea7…466c
sports · 658 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$64 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$221
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses249 / 330
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions78
Markets (closed)579 / 658
History coverage828d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 78 History 579 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$22
14 days−$37
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 50¢ 69¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 69¢ 92¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Yes 41¢ 48¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? Yes 39¢ 43¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 46¢ 51¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 26¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 36¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-18%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 77¢ 80¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$2 (-24%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 57¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $6 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Yes 68¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 43¢ 57¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 71¢ 51¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Will Declan Rice score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 58¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 38¢ 30¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 47¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 -14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $1 +$2 +197%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $12 +$10 +87%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $10 −$4 -42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $19 −$5 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -65%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 +27%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$2 -38%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 10 $4 +$3 +88%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $4 −$1 -27%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $14 $0 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 09 $11 −$3 -26%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $1 $0 +38%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +129%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -58%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $1 $0 -33%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 +$1 +105%
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian Jun 07 $7 −$6 -78%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $4 −$1 -15%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 07 $6 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% +$37
sports 31% −$102
politics 22% −$23
world 5% +$12
economics 5% −$2
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$10
tech 0% +$18
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 47¢ $2 1h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 1h
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 55¢ $3 2h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $1 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $1 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 95¢ $2 6h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 5¢ $1 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $2 9h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 9h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 58¢ $3 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 35¢ $7 10h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $1 12h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 12h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 76¢ $1 13h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 78¢ $4 13h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 14h
Will A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) gain the most seats in the next BUY Yes 1¢ $1 15h
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 15h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $0 19h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 8¢ $1 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 22h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 24h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -7.9% -16.6% 42% 31% -19.2%
≤30d 204 +0.2% -9.3% 41% 30% -7.6%
≤90d 527 +0.1% -9.4% 44% 38% -11.3%
all 579 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 36% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 36% -10.1%
10% -18.1% 34% -18.7%
15% -26.1% 30% -26.5%
20% -33.3% 23% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $220.86 · official $219.85 (match) · 1780 history records