Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7ea2…dad5 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$107 (+14%) realized +$111 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$101
politics 33% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+34.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +48.3% +34.2% 75% 75% +17.3%
≤30d 4 +48.3% +34.2% 75% 75% +17.3%
≤90d 4 +48.3% +34.2% 75% 75% +17.3%
all 4 +48.3% +34.2% 75% 75% +17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.2% 75% +17.3%
10% +21.4% 75% +6.1%
15% +9.6% 50% -4.2%
20% -1.1% 50% -13.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$47 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$111
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $124 $124 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$46 +108%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $192 +$58 +30%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 22 $98 +$85 +87%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 21 $148 −$47 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.90 · official $257.10 (match) · 18 history records