Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7ea2…de87 other 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$469 (+4%) realized +$481 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%24W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$98est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$704now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$521
7 days+$1,151
14 days+$1,063
30 days+$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$339
sports 29% +$930
crypto 14% −$231
world 1% −$148
economics 1% −$60
culture 0% −$19
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -7.4% -16.3% 26% 26% +4.0%
≤30d 50 -11.1% -19.6% 24% 24% +1.6%
≤90d 88 -23.9% -31.1% 22% 20% -6.4%
all 105 -22.0% -29.4% 23% 21% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 21% -7.8%
10% -36.2% 19% -16.6%
15% -42.3% 16% -24.7%
20% -48.0% 16% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$49 · ×3.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$704
Realized+$481
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses24 / 81
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 112
History coverage276d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $500 $494 −$6 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $200 $195 −$5 (-3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 12¢ 12¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $103 −$94 -92%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $49 −$48 -98%
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$96 -94%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $497 −$50 -10%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $208 −$75 -36%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $29 −$4 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$96 -94%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$185 +180%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $224 +$1,171 +523%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $315 +$289 +92%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $235 +$81 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$8 -29%
Croatia to score first vs. England? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2,699 −$178 -7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $305 −$300 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $167 −$155 -93%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $287 −$188 -66%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 16 $54 −$53 -98%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $47 −$46 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $100 −$95 -94%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 −$12 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $141 −$138 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $185 −$180 -97%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $102 +$328 +321%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$240 +224%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $102 +$252 +246%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 +$21 +30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$2 -16%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $117 +$428 +365%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $154 +$492 +319%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$33 -64%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $70 +$51 +74%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 13 $191 +$130 +68%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $90 −$88 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $97 −$95 -98%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $18 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $309 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 12h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 11¢ $6 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $49 12h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 13h
Haiti to score first vs. Brazil? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 13h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 13h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 15h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $447 16h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $497 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $11 27h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $4 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $5 27h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 27h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 40h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $24 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 1¢ $6 41h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $30 41h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $132 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $99 41h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 41h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 43h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 61¢ $287 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $704.17 · official $704.66 (match) · 334 history records