Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:05:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7E 0x7ea1…7a5f other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$2 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate88%7W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-10.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-0.9%	-10.4%	88%	38%	-13.8%
≤30d	8	-0.9%	-10.4%	88%	38%	-13.8%
≤90d	8	-0.9%	-10.4%	88%	38%	-13.8%
all	8	-0.9%	-10.4%	88%	38%	-13.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-10.4%	38%	-13.8%
10% ← realistic here	-18.9%	25%	-22.0%
15%	-26.8%	0%	-29.6%
20%	-34.0%	0%	-36.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 48% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

57% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs −$55 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.63 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$24

Realized+$2

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses7 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)8 / 13

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	No	63¢	97¢	$13	$19	+$7 (+54%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	Yes	6¢	4¢	$3	$2	−$1 (-21%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22?	Yes	8¢	4¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-53%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-27%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$1	$1	−$0 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$16	+$6	+34%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$45	+$11	+25%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$40	+$5	+12%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Jun 21	$39	+$3	+8%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 21	$55	−$55	-100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$56	+$4	+8%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$91	+$4	+4%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	Jun 21	$88	+$2	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	63¢	$13	30m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL No	100¢	$22	35m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	72¢	$7	47m
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	77¢	$9	53m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL No	100¢	$56	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	80¢	$12	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	80¢	$33	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	SELL No	100¢	$45	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 1 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	89¢	$40	1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL No	100¢	$37	1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	4¢	$1	2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	SELL No	90¢	$4	2h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde?	BUY No	91¢	$39	2h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY No	47¢	$5	3h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran?	BUY No	94¢	$50	5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	SELL No	100¢	$60	6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	6h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 22?	BUY Yes	8¢	$2	6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	93¢	$16	7h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	93¢	$39	7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	SELL No	100¢	$95	7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	96¢	$17	7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	96¢	$25	7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	96¢	$49	7h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	SELL No	100¢	$90	7h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia?	BUY No	97¢	$88	14h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.14 · official $24.15 (match) · 28 history records