Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:37:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7E 0x7e96…b339 other 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 394d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$17 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate48%10W / 11L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$19
world 23% −$4
sports 18% +$3
politics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.2% -10.6% 40% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 6 +22.1% +10.4% 50% 17% -10.9%
≤90d 10 +11.7% +1.1% 50% 10% -8.5%
all 21 +8.2% -2.1% 48% 10% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 10% -8.0%
10% -11.5% 10% -16.8%
15% -20.1% 10% -24.8%
20% -27.9% 5% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.03 per $1 lost it wins $4.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

394d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses10 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage394d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 15¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $81 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $7 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $47 −$5 -10%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 20 $2 $0 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $154 +$11 +7%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Mar 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 17 $140 +$6 +4%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 222.5 Mar 17 $142 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $6 +$3 +47%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Assists O/U 2.5 Mar 16 $57 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 27 $24 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Virgil van Dijk win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 16 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $4 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $12 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $28 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $32 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $47 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $46 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $46 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $20 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 7d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL Yes $5 89d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY Yes $6 89d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $141 90d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 90d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $71 90d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 90d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $94 90d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $76 90d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $169 90d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $106 90d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.14 · official $0.66 (match) · 62 history records