Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e96…ec92 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$71 (+1%) realized +$43 · open +$28
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate60%34W / 23L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 25% +$60
other 23% +$20
crypto 16% $0
politics 11% −$14
tech 10% +$4
economics 9% −$3
sports 4% +$31
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 57 +1.7% -8.0% 60% 7% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 7% -8.4%
10% -16.8% 4% -17.2%
15% -24.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.2% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 57% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.13 per $1 lost it wins $3.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$43
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses34 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage261d
Avg bet$100
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jordan 57¢ 68¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 17 $150 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 24 $170 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $170 in May? May 17 $170 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $100 +$2 +2%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 12 $100 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $100 +$2 +2%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? Mar 17 $100 +$28 +28%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 Mar 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Mar 09 $100 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 02 $100 −$15 -15%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 28 $100 $0 +0%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, Feb 18 $100 −$4 -4%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Feb 14 $100 $0 -0%
Ilhan Omar town hall attack staged? Feb 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? Feb 09 $100 +$30 +30%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 08 $100 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 06 $100 −$2 -2%
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026? Feb 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Jan 31 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the US strike Somalia next? Jan 29 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)? Jan 27 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 22 $100 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? Jan 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)? Jan 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 16 $100 +$5 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 09 $100 $0 -0%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 07 $100 $0 +0%
Bank of Japan decreases interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 06 $100 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 04 $100 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 02 $100 +$1 +1%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Jan 01 $100 −$1 -1%
US recession in 2025? Dec 30 $100 $0 -0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 29 $100 −$3 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 26 $100 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 24 $100 $0 +0%
Will no CEO be announced in 2025? Dec 23 $80 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $152 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $150 10d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $150 13d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $170 35d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? SELL No 100¢ $170 35d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $170 41d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? SELL No 100¢ $170 41d
Will Solana reach $170 in May? BUY No 100¢ $170 45d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $102 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $100 76d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 76d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 78d
76ers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 97¢ $100 82d
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 97¢ $100 93d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $102 93d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 99d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL Yes 99¢ $100 99d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 102d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $100 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $100 108d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 SELL Yes 99¢ $100 108d
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 BUY Yes 98¢ $100 110d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? SELL No 100¢ $100 110d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $100 112d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? BUY No 93¢ $100 117d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? SELL Yes 75¢ $85 117d
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 119d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $100 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.63 · official $161.84 · 115 history records