trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +25.0% | +13.1% | 67% | 67% | +31.0% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +25.0% | +13.1% | 67% | 67% | +31.0% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +25.0% | +13.1% | 67% | 67% | +31.0% |
| all | 27 | -18.3% | -26.1% | 41% | 37% | -16.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.1% | 37% | -16.1% |
| 10% | -33.2% | 37% | -24.1% |
| 15% | -39.6% | 37% | -31.4% |
| 20% | -45.5% | 30% | -38.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 57¢ | 78¢ | $70 | $96 | +$26 (+38%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$56 | +109% |
| Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? | Jun 17 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? | Jun 17 | $51 | +$33 | +66% |
| Will FC Internazionale Milano vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | Jan 20 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? | Jan 20 | $27 | −$22 | -83% |
| Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-11? | Jan 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Ja | Jan 03 | $25 | +$20 | +82% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on January 2 | Jan 01 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on January | Jan 01 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on De | Jan 01 | $20 | +$10 | +49% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on December | Jan 01 | $20 | +$13 | +66% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on January 1? | Jan 01 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ja | Jan 01 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on December | Dec 31 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on December | Dec 30 | $5 | −$1 | -29% |
| U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? | Dec 29 | $55 | −$4 | -8% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 46-47°F on December | Dec 29 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 40-41°F on December | Dec 29 | $13 | +$10 | +77% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on December | Dec 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on December 2 | Dec 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or below on December 29 | Dec 28 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on December | Dec 28 | $20 | +$30 | +148% |
| Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 80°F or higher on December 2 | Dec 28 | $40 | +$47 | +117% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on De | Dec 28 | $50 | +$18 | +35% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on December 28? | Dec 27 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on De | Dec 27 | $20 | +$34 | +168% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET | Dec 18 | $20 | +$2 | +8% |