Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:58:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e8d…9c0b crypto 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$951 (-17%) realized −$951 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate57%62W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$202
14 days+$107
30 days+$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 33% −$454
other 25% +$204
world 19% −$313
politics 11% −$531
weather 6% −$27
sports 3% −$37
finance 2% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +20.6% +9.1% 75% 75% +18.0%
≤30d 22 +8.1% -2.2% 68% 59% +0.6%
≤90d 109 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 38% -28.7%
all 109 -14.1% -22.3% 57% 38% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.3% 38% -28.7%
10% -29.8% 24% -35.5%
15% -36.5% 18% -41.8%
20% -42.8% 13% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$37 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$415
Realized−$951
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses62 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)109 / 127
History coverage39d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will John Fleming be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Yes 14¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Will Julia Letlow be the republican nominee for Senate in Louisiana? No 12¢ 16¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $102 +$23 +22%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $66 +$92 +138%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $247 +$44 +18%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $41 +$21 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +75%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 +$22 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$16 +100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $20 +$5 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$21 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $255 −$153 -60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 +$14 +56%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 30 $105 +$63 +60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 33°C on May 25? May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $246 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 25? May 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 26? May 25 $52 −$24 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? May 25 $36 −$36 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $279 −$15 -6%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $111 +$14 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 24 $70 −$5 -7%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $82 +$11 +13%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $122 −$27 -22%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $400 −$274 -68%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $604 −$535 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 17? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $20 −$6 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $51 −$22 -44%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 19 $10 −$9 -83%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 19 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 19 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 19 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -83%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5) May 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 19 $11 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 18 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 18 $21 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 82¢ $25 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $20 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $82 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 19h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $48 25h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $66 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $290 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $247 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $41 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $41 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $36 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.95 · official $414.96 (match) · 286 history records