Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e8b…eca5 crypto 937 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d only
✗ bot/MM pace (301 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$846 (+6%) realized +$846 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%393W / 544L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day300.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$85
14 days−$294
30 days−$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$294
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (301 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 558 -0.8% -10.3% 41% 24% -10.6%
≤30d 937 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 25% -11.5%
≤90d 937 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 25% -11.5%
all 937 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 25% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover300.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 25% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 12% -20.0%
15% -27.0% 8% -27.7%
20% -34.1% 5% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$846
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses393 / 544
Open positions0
Markets (closed)937 / 937
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day300.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 937 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$9 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$6 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $28 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $7 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $11 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $8 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records