Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:52:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e8b…e1d0 world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% −$4
other 10% −$8
politics 4% −$1
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.5% -9.9% 12% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -1.0% -10.4% 31% 0% -10.4%
all 26 -7.4% -16.2% 42% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 0% -11.9%
10% -24.2% 0% -20.3%
15% -31.6% 0% -28.0%
20% -38.3% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage462d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 72¢ 74¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $32 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $52 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $45 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $28 −$3 -11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -9%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? May 07 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 24 $7 −$1 -10%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 22 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 24 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 73¢ $4 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 72¢ $23 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 72¢ $27 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $5 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 66¢ $19 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $26 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $28 11h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $28 13h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 19h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $26 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $26 29h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 39h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 41h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $26 47h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $26 2d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $26 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $29 4d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $29 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $14 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $14 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $26 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $27 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $26 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $26 8d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.37 (match) · 84 history records