Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7e8a…5f49 sports 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,795 (-3%) realized −$5,787 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate61%63W / 40L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,935per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$876est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,227
7 days+$1,327
14 days−$8,182
30 days−$8,755
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$6,330
world 22% +$2,574
crypto 17% −$3,286
other 6% +$1,022
politics 1% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -11.0% -19.4% 53% 44% -6.7%
≤30d 100 -9.0% -17.7% 60% 48% -14.1%
≤90d 103 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 48% -12.3%
all 103 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 48% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.2% 48% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 44% -20.7%
15% -32.3% 38% -28.3%
20% -39.0% 26% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$2,066) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$1,190 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$1,416
Realized−$5,787
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses63 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$876
Open positions2
Markets (closed)103 / 105
History coverage40d
Avg bet$1,935
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Germany 65¢ 64¢ $1,040 $1,032 −$8 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $383 $384 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 29 $8,222 +$5,140 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 29 $4,124 −$4,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 29 $2,166 −$2,100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $2,066 +$1,741 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $1,241 −$1,200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 29 $733 −$704 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $828 −$800 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 29 $413 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 29 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $4,044 +$40 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 29 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 29 $614 +$184 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 29 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 29 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 29 $103 +$94 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 29 $517 +$461 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 29 $105 −$100 -95%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $2,693 +$1,230 +46%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $1,844 +$156 +8%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $1,440 −$1,440 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $504 +$326 +65%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $507 +$173 +34%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $494 −$490 -99%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $501 −$497 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,120 +$880 +79%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $167 +$102 +61%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $533 +$686 +129%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1,642 +$358 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,046 −$1,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $103 +$69 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$137 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $104 +$96 +93%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $65 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $1,343 +$1,054 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $1,300 +$1,109 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $469 +$831 +177%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,269 −$1,255 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2,522 −$2,494 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6,848 −$6,772 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $716 +$284 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $994 +$406 +41%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,540 +$460 +30%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,219 +$717 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 65¢ $1,051 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $716 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $362 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $420 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1,146 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $524 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $939 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $746 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $920 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $803 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $720 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $926 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $444 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $418 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1,044 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $848 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $586 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $783 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $406 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $718 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $936 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $773 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $317 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $460 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $244 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $503 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $309 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,415.57 · official $1,415.57 (match) · 514 history records