Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e8a…91c8 other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3
other 37% +$3
politics 6% $0
finance 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.8% -10.2% 27% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 18 +3.2% -6.7% 39% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 18 +3.2% -6.7% 39% 6% -9.0%
all 43 +2.2% -7.5% 42% 5% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 5% -8.9%
10% -16.4% 5% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 5% -25.6%
20% -31.9% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.52 per $1 lost it wins $3.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $23 −$1 -6%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $48 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $88 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $6 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$2 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $45 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $1 +$1 +60%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $15 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Jul 08 $1 $0 -5%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 08 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 07 $26 $0 +0%
Wimbledon: Sinner vs. Dimitrov Jul 07 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 03 $12 $0 +1%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 24 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Alice Weidel be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 52-53°F on March 25? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $1 +$2 +133%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 19 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $18 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $48 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $36 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $2 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $34 10h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 16h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $21 36h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 95¢ $23 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $46 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $45 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $33 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 83¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $50 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $22 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $22 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $21 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 148 history records