Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e89…8946 other 226 markets active 1h ago coverage 737d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,555 (-4%) realized −$1,528 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate86%186W / 31L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$760now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$559
7 days−$543
14 days−$512
30 days−$506
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$935
politics 25% −$489
crypto 17% −$157
economics 15% +$13
world 10% −$11
finance 5% −$18
culture 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +85.7% +68.0% 57% 14% -48.0%
≤30d 21 +16.6% +5.5% 71% 10% -27.5%
≤90d 76 +5.2% -4.8% 91% 5% -14.6%
all 217 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 2% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 2% -13.2%
10% -17.7% 1% -21.5%
15% -25.6% 0% -29.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$70 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$760
Realized−$1,528
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses186 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions9
Markets (closed)217 / 226
History coverage737d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $253 $248 −$5 (-2%)
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? No 90¢ 92¢ $181 $184 +$3 (+2%)
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $181 $183 +$2 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 96¢ 74¢ $108 $83 −$25 (-23%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Yes $16 $14 −$2 (-12%)
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? No $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 17 $417 −$126 -30%
Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 17 $712 −$433 -61%
Will Jotham Stein advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $15 +$1 +7%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 12 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Tom Herman advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 12 $2 +$15 +783%
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $13 $0 +3%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan mayoral election by less than 5%? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will GamerLegion qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will Eugene Weems advance from the CA-33 primary election? Jun 05 $31 +$1 +3%
Will THUNDER dOWNUNDER qualify to Stage 2 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chris Espinosa advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 04 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Larry Thompson advance from the CA-32 primary election? Jun 04 $29 +$2 +6%
Will Sam Gallucci advance from the CA-26 primary election? Jun 04 $127 +$41 +32%
Will Elizabeth Fenner advance from the CA-37 primary election? Jun 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 31 $210 +$1 +1%
Will another outcome occur in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runo May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $216 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 22 $580 +$3 +1%
Will Trump Insult Xi this week? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump say "Elon" or "Jensen" or "Tim" during Bret Baier interview May 17 $0 $0 +11%
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 15 2026? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Trump Leave China after May 18? May 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15? May 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? May 14 $137 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 09 $40 +$5 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 05 $174 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.00 in April? May 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.80 in April? May 02 $41 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April? May 02 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 27 $169 +$3 +2%
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 26? Apr 25 $33 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $434 +$1 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? Apr 19 $135 +$1 +1%
Will Mark Rutte say "Europe" during meeting with Prime Minister of Cze Apr 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mark Rutte say "Trump" during meeting with Prime Minister of Czec Apr 18 $121 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Friend" or "Ally" 7+ times during dinner with Dutch ro Apr 14 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 12 $165 +$1 +0%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 09 $10 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 08 $112 +$1 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 08 $39 +$1 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 05 $9 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Apr 05 $141 $0 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 05 $3 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 5.0% by March 31? Apr 05 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 29¢ $43 53m
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY Yes 71¢ $355 55m
Will Charles Park be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY No 90¢ $181 58m
Will Grace Meng be the Democratic Nominee for NY-06? BUY Yes 91¢ $182 59m
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No $0 1h
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No $0 1h
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No $0 1h
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 23¢ $22 1h
Will Mitchell Jacob be the Democratic nominee for OK-04? BUY No $0 1h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No $7 2h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 93¢ $149 2h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 11¢ $11 2h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY No 13¢ $13 3h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 3h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Celeste Maloy be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 3h
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? BUY Yes $16 3h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes $17 4h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 4d
Will Todd Lombardo advance from the CA-37 primary election? SELL Yes $0 7d
Will Baltazar Fedalizo advance from the CA-37 primary election? BUY No 40¢ $2 10d
Will Trump say "Landslide" during Wisconsin events? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes $39 11d
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY Yes $3 11d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY No 96¢ $962 11d
Will Eugene Weems advance from the CA-33 primary election? SELL No 99¢ $32 11d
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? BUY Yes $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $759.55 · official $759.13 (match) · 704 history records