Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7e86…cb8f sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$24,640 (-17%) realized −$24,523 · open −$117
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%46W / 64L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,264per market
Trades / day11.4pace
Fees−$1,953est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$3,802now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,999
7 days−$10,017
14 days−$23,832
30 days−$23,123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$26,889
other 3% +$1,231
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -45.0% -50.3% 29% 29% -54.6%
≤30d 104 -15.7% -23.8% 42% 42% -25.5%
≤90d 110 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 42% -26.4%
all 110 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 42% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 42% -26.4%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 42% -33.5%
15% -38.5% 41% -39.9%
20% -44.6% 39% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$1,579) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$966 vs −$1,094 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3,802
Realized−$24,523
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses46 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$1,953
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage32d
Avg bet$1,264
Trades / day11.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 52¢ $2,000 $1,951 −$49 (-2%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Under 54¢ 52¢ $1,919 $1,851 −$68 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 55 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $2,036 −$1,999 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $951 −$938 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2,022 −$2,000 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $719 −$710 -99%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $825 −$825 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $776 −$767 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $752 −$742 -99%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $210 −$208 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $769 −$765 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $337 −$330 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $497 +$503 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,935 +$2,035 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $791 +$707 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $1,543 −$1,525 -99%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $911 −$900 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $658 +$538 +82%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $487 +$513 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $836 +$602 +72%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $519 −$519 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $527 −$520 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $968 −$960 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $499 +$781 +156%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $591 +$509 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $523 −$518 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,999 +$1,571 +79%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +85%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $517 −$517 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $520 −$520 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $2,030 −$2,000 -98%
Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $4,105 −$4,063 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1,915 −$1,893 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1,934 −$1,907 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1,115 +$922 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1,015 +$985 +97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $1,518 −$1,500 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $1,115 −$1,100 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $1,003 −$988 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $2,295 +$680 +30%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $2,507 +$1,981 +79%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 08 $1,792 −$104 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 08 $1,350 −$68 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,419 −$65 -5%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $1,319 +$752 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 50m
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,940 51m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $2,028 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 39¢ $1,696 23h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 38¢ $340 23h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 54¢ $951 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2,022 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $767 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $256 5d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $719 5d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 58¢ $2,025 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $825 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 59¢ $776 5d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $752 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $4 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $4 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $2 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $1 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $3 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $3 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $64 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $2 5d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $3 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $235 5d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $172 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,801.57 · official $3,801.57 (match) · 412 history records