Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:25:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e81…df38 other 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%20W / 221L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$19
14 days−$26
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$35
sports 23% −$16
politics 9% −$4
culture 8% −$9
economics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$25
world 4% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 84 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 171 -0.3% -9.8% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 241 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses20 / 221
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)241 / 242
History coverage130d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $430 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $152 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $290 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $183 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $252 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $501 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $523 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $190 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $74 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $346 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $288 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $110 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $507 −$2 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $469 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $400 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $359 +$1 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $479 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $238 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $537 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $162 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $346 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $134 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $330 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $150 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $722 +$1 +0%
Will Houston Dynamo FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $154 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 10 $587 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $92 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $169 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $156 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $84 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $35 14m
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 3h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $0 4h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $0 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 7h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 9h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 12h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 14h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 16h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $36 17h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $36 18h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 26h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 34h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 38h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 39h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $36 41h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $36 42h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 2d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $11 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.28 · official $35.28 (match) · 1406 history records