Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e80…f0e7 crypto 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-2%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate90%63W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$20
14 days+$96
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$100
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 70 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 10% -11.1%
≤90d 70 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 10% -11.1%
all 70 -3.0% -12.2% 90% 10% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 10% -11.1%
10% -20.6% 1% -19.6%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.4%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$53 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses63 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage21d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $126 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $185 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $177 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $171 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 19 $168 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $167 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $154 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $155 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $150 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $142 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 07 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 07 $130 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $120 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $123 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 07 $116 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $104 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 07 $93 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $106 −$106 -100%
Nanterre vs. Monaco Jun 06 $50 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 06 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $88 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 31 $88 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 31 $86 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 31 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 31 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 31 $84 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 31 $78 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 31 $74 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 31 $71 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 31 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 31 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 31 $65 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 31 $62 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 31 $63 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $55 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 30 $36 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 30 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 30 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 30 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 30 $30 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 30 $53 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 30 $71 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 30 $68 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 30 $56 +$8 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $126 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $185 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $177 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $168 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $167 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $154 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $155 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $150 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $142 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $135 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $67 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $63 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $120 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $34 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $79 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $85 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $108 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $104 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $93 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $101 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $95 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records