Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e7a…3b50 sports 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%11W / 128L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$9
other 24% −$4
politics 16% −$1
economics 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 3 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 139 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses11 / 128
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage155d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 95¢ 96¢ $36 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 -2%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 26 $161 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 26 $104 $0 -0%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 26 $51 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Feb 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $420 −$1 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 25 $37 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $69 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $54 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 23 $422 −$2 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $249 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 23 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $133 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $245 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $126 −$5 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $206 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $162 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 22 $153 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $71 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $118 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $36 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $20 14d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $37 22d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $37 22d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $37 35d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $37 35d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $28 113d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $28 113d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 96¢ $37 113d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 96¢ $37 113d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $32 113d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $32 113d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 113d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 113d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? SELL No 95¢ $32 113d
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? BUY No 95¢ $32 113d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $26 113d
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 113d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $34 113d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $34 113d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $36 113d
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 113d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $28 114d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $28 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $38 114d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $38 114d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 114d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 114d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $34 117d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.65 · official $36.65 (match) · 641 history records