Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7e78…6ec2 sports 115 markets active 2h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+5%) realized +$132 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%39W / 64L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$413now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days−$702
14 days−$456
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$70
sports 21% +$156
other 21% +$168
crypto 3% +$37
finance 1% −$2
politics 1% −$8
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -75.6% -77.9% 7% 7% -63.8%
≤30d 68 -47.9% -52.9% 21% 21% -33.5%
≤90d 77 -29.2% -35.9% 29% 29% -8.4%
all 103 -0.9% -10.3% 38% 38% +5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 38% +5.2%
10% -18.9% 37% -4.9%
15% -26.7% 36% -14.0%
20% -33.9% 36% -22.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +83% → late -83% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$15 · ×2.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$413
Realized+$132
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses39 / 64
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)103 / 115
History coverage206d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $90 $145 +$55 (+61%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $80 $91 +$11 (+14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 23¢ $50 $73 +$23 (+47%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 11¢ $50 $36 −$14 (-28%)
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 42¢ 12¢ $100 $30 −$70 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Jun 28 $25 +$77 +307%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $26 +$79 +310%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-01-02? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-31? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-01-19? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-01-01? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Wizards Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Botswana win on 2025-12-30? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Senegal vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the fight end in Round 3? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-12-31? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Kayserispor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Calcio Padova vs. Palermo FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-01-11? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Rangers FC vs. PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-01-02? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Trump say "Regime change" this week? (March 15) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jun 24 $40 −$40 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Jun 24 $130 −$57 -44%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Benin win on 2025-12-30? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
CD Comerciantes Unidos vs. CD Moquegua: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $30 −$30 -100%
Udinese Calcio vs. AS Roma: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
AC Reggiana 1919 vs. AC Monza: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Jun 24 $50 −$50 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? AND Will England win on 2026-07- BUY 15¢ $25 11h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 24¢ $25 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY 3¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 22¢ $26 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $26 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 28¢ $26 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 24¢ $26 7d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will France win on 2026-06 BUY 30¢ $26 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 42¢ $25 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 39¢ $25 8d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 11d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $30 11d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 11d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 11d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $30 12d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 47¢ $20 12d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $104 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 14d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 14d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $30 14d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 19d
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 19¢ $40 28d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $96 29d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $51 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.10 · official $437.47 · 299 history records