Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7E 0x7e75…1e94 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -68% what you keep after slip

Net edge-68%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate36%8W / 14L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$772per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,040now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$8

7 days−$5

14 days−$17

30 days−$9

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-67.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	18	-55.5%	-59.7%	44%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	22	-63.6%	-67.0%	36%	0%	-9.7%
all	22	-63.6%	-67.0%	36%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-67.0%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-70.2%	0%	-18.3%
15%	-73.1%	0%	-26.2%
20%	-75.7%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -64% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,049) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -73% → late -54% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.56 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage

Net worth$2,040

Realized−$23

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage40d

Avg bet$772

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26?	Yes	100¢	100¢	$2,035	$2,035	+$0 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	97¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25?	Jun 26	$2,031	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25?	Jun 25	$2,027	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	Jun 24	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23?	Jun 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	Jun 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 13?	Jun 14	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9?	Jun 10	$2,070	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	Jun 09	$2,068	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$2,062	+$6	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	Jun 08	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	Jun 08	$2,054	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	Jun 08	$2,049	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	Jun 04	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	May 28	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	May 25	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,035	1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,031	5h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,027	18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	8d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	9d
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 9?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	16d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,068	16d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	17d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$2,058	17d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 7?	BUY No	100¢	$2,054	18d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 7?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,049	18d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	20d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	22d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	BUY No	0¢	$4	34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 20?	BUY No	0¢	$4	37d
Will XRP reach $1.60 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	40d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,039.73 · official $2,039.73 (match) · 36 history records