Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:50:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e74…7473 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%17W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 57% −$14
politics 29% −$77
other 9% +$13
sports 3% +$98
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +13.7% +2.8% 17% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 16 +5.1% -4.9% 12% 6% -9.0%
≤90d 52 +8.5% -1.9% 23% 17% -7.5%
all 70 +5.8% -4.3% 24% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 13% -9.4%
10% -13.5% 13% -18.1%
15% -21.8% 13% -26.0%
20% -29.5% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses17 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage580d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 16 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $29 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $62 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $97 $0 +0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $196 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 13 $175 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $330 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $177 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $171 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $169 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $171 $0 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $172 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $176 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $176 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $347 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $172 −$1 -1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $183 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $164 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 14 $176 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $182 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $8 +$5 +72%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $9 +$15 +165%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $11 +$12 +108%
Blackhawks vs. Rangers Apr 06 $26 −$26 -100%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 06 $46 $0 +1%
Devils vs. Rangers Apr 06 $25 +$27 +108%
Blues vs. Sharks Mar 31 $30 +$29 +96%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $31 +$42 +137%
Senators vs. Red Wings Mar 26 $23 +$26 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $24 16h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $24 20h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 43h
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 5d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $21 7d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $7 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 9d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 11d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $22 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $22 13d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 16d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 16d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $25 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.59 · official $132.59 (match) · 290 history records