Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7E 0x7e71…15e9 other 144 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%13W / 130L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 38% −$11
sports 10% +$5
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 133 -2.0% -11.3% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 143 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses13 / 130
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)143 / 144
History coverage109d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Bulls vs. Lakers Bulls 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Clippers Pacers 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Mavericks Mavericks 30¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Nets vs. Trail Blazers Nets 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Celtics Celtics 69¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Cavaliers 59¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Heat vs. Cavaliers Heat 35¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Heat Bucks 31¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Raptors Pelicans 25¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $21 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $198 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $28 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $368 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 Jun 08 $17 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $22 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $309 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $303 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $149 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $331 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $155 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $147 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $166 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $295 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $140 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $149 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 15 $135 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $145 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $138 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $776 −$1 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $153 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $153 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $325 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $181 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $271 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $132 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $142 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $373 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $329 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $287 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $153 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $141 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $326 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $280 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $156 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $355 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $137 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $21 13h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14h
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 2d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $25 3d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $24 4d
Will the New York Jets win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $24 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $18 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 6d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will Ed Davey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $17 7d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $18 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $18 9d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 16d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $155 19d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $155 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $149 20d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $149 20d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $180 21d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $180 21d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $155 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 397 history records