Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e6c…c9e3 world 38 markets active 3d ago coverage 439d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$2
other 16% +$14
politics 12% −$5
tech 10% −$2
culture 3% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +32.7% +20.0% 33% 17% -9.8%
≤30d 14 +13.8% +3.0% 14% 7% -9.9%
≤90d 14 +13.8% +3.0% 14% 7% -9.9%
all 38 +13.6% +2.8% 37% 5% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.8% 5% -9.1%
10% -7.0% 5% -17.8%
15% -16.0% 5% -25.7%
20% -24.2% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

439d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage439d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $106 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $19 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $67 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $66 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $97 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $1 $0 +5%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win between 45% and 47% of the vote in the South Ko Jun 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Will valid votes be between 32 million and 34 million in South Korean Jun 03 $7 −$7 -94%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 03 $27 $0 -2%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June? May 30 $32 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 27 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 07 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 06 $9 −$1 -11%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Apr 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 04 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 03 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Apr 01 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Apr 01 $12 $0 +3%
Will Randy Fine win by 15-20%? Apr 01 $4 +$16 +413%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $7 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $20 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $36 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $16 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $17 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $12 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $14 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $17 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $18 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 152 history records