Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:02:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7E 0x7e6a…13ce crypto 508 markets active 9h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+4%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate66%335W / 173L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days+$2
14 days−$11
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$82
weather 7% −$38
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -10.5% -19.1% 48% 48% -8.7%
≤30d 149 +9.1% -1.3% 57% 57% -0.6%
≤90d 459 -0.2% -9.7% 67% 44% -6.8%
all 508 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 43% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 43% -8.2%
10% -19.1% 37% -17.0%
15% -26.9% 33% -25.0%
20% -34.1% 29% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses335 / 173
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)508 / 508
History coverage104d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 508 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$5 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $53 +$33 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 976 history records