trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 25% | 12% | -7.6% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 25% | 12% | -7.6% |
| all | 31 | +1.0% | -8.6% | 52% | 3% | -8.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.6% | 3% | -8.1% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 3% | -16.9% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 3% | -24.9% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -32.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | No | 47¢ | 46¢ | $47 | $46 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 27 | $46 | $0 | -0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $13 | −$1 | -10% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $5 | $0 | -5% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 25 | $92 | +$3 | +3% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 24 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 24 | $89 | −$2 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 23 | $25 | +$9 | +36% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma | May 22 | $35 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? | Jun 26 | $9 | $0 | -2% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? | May 24 | $9 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? | May 18 | $8 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108000 and $110000 on May 16? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | May 15 | $9 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on | May 14 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | May 13 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? | May 12 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | May 11 | $12 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? | May 11 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% or more in April? | May 10 | $13 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? | May 10 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will 'Fight or Flight' gross less than $0.9m opening weekend? | May 09 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the next Pope be from South America? | May 09 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? | May 08 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? | May 08 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? | May 08 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | May 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon buy TikTok? | May 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days? | May 06 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? | May 06 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Capitals vs. Rangers | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |