Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e66…53df crypto 484 markets active 0h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,525 (+2%) realized +$1,575 · open −$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%220W / 258L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$800now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$65
14 days+$294
30 days+$1,004
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$151
crypto 43% +$1,263
sports 5% −$331
world 0% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.9% -3.3% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤30d 27 +25.6% +13.7% 52% 48% +19.0%
≤90d 61 +11.7% +1.1% 48% 46% +0.7%
all 478 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 45% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 45% -7.7%
10% -17.4% 44% -16.5%
15% -25.4% 43% -24.6%
20% -32.7% 41% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$110 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$800
Realized+$1,575
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses220 / 258
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions6
Markets (closed)478 / 484
History coverage191d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 478 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 37¢ 36¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 108 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 −$106 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$116 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $152 +$94 +62%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 −$150 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $122 +$211 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $105 +$228 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 03 $104 −$60 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 03 $103 +$89 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $105 +$161 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $105 +$349 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 30 $104 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 30 $104 +$113 +109%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $104 −$100 -96%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $112 +$100 +90%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $112 +$100 +90%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $204 +$580 +284%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 24 $125 −$42 -34%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 24 $104 −$100 -96%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $122 −$120 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 21 $105 +$162 +155%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 21 $104 +$22 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 20 $104 +$157 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 18 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 18 $104 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $112 −$110 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $253 −$250 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $152 +$94 +62%
Will PSV win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $153 +$188 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 17 $103 −$26 -25%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $112 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 17 $206 −$206 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET May 17 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 17 $104 −$30 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 17 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 05 $104 +$124 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 05 $104 +$140 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 05 $113 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 05 $104 +$108 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET May 05 $114 −$110 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 05 $104 −$69 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 04 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 04 $103 +$90 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $153 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $152 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $47 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $152 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 49¢ $152 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $102 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 4d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $122 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $105 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 23¢ $43 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $266 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $105 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $105 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 21d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $153 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $111 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 22d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $112 26d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $112 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $83 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $799.80 · official $799.82 (match) · 926 history records