Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e64…1824 crypto 355 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$519 (-7%) realized −$519 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate47%167W / 188L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$18
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 44% −$169
sports 20% −$53
other 20% −$294
culture 4% −$39
world 4% +$50
politics 3% −$11
tech 2% −$5
finance 2% −$31
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.5% -29.9% 42% 42% -16.9%
≤30d 62 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 42% -24.9%
≤90d 62 -7.5% -16.3% 44% 42% -24.9%
all 355 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 35% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 35% -15.8%
10% -24.4% 25% -23.9%
15% -31.7% 19% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 13% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$519
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses167 / 188
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)355 / 355
History coverage143d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 355 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$6 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 $0 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$3 +146%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +58%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $14 +$5 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $24 −$17 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $12 +$6 +47%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $5 +$3 +58%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 01 $14 +$5 +39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $12 −$3 -25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $22 +$7 +33%
Birmingham: Elvina Kalieva vs Talia Gibson Jun 01 $15 +$5 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Madison Keys vs Diana Shnaider Jun 01 $5 −$2 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Vit Kopriva vs Corentin Moutet May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $3 +$2 +72%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3 +$2 +67%
Roland Garros ATP: Martin Landaluce vs Juan Carlos Prado May 26 $3 +$2 +66%
Roland Garros ATP: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $4 +$1 +34%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $3 +$2 +59%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $4 +$1 +20%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $4 +$1 +15%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $3 +$2 +45%
Will FC CFR 1907 Cluj win on 2026-05-22? May 22 $3 −$1 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 20 $6 +$20 +312%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 20 $4 +$23 +548%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 20 $150 −$46 -31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $46 26m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 87¢ $40 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $10 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 40¢ $2 11h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 68¢ $2 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 61¢ $6 15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $2 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $10 18h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $5 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL No 51¢ $5 18h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 55¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 39h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 8d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $6 8d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $10 10d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 10d
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Sofia Costoulas 55¢ $3 13d
Foggia: Tatiana Pieri vs Sofia Costoulas BUY Sofia Costoulas 55¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BIG 96¢ $19 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY BIG 72¢ $14 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 13d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1626 history records