Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:07:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e64…7308 sports 341 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,514 (+5%) realized +$1,511 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%170W / 169L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$327
14 days−$77
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$104
other 17% +$1,375
world 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 7 +11.2% +0.6% 57% 57% -6.7%
≤90d 25 -8.5% -17.2% 48% 48% -10.8%
all 339 +2.2% -7.5% 50% 50% -4.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 50% -4.9%
10% -16.4% 49% -14.0%
15% -24.5% 47% -22.3%
20% -31.9% 41% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$72 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized+$1,511
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses170 / 169
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)339 / 341
History coverage325d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 339 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 57¢ 58¢ $140 $144 +$4 (+3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 61¢ 60¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 18 $89 −$87 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 18 $132 −$130 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $112 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $81 +$102 +125%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 +$118 +97%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 09 $51 +$30 +60%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $102 +$98 +97%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $212 +$97 +46%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-05? Apr 28 $112 +$88 +79%
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi Apr 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 17 $180 +$94 +52%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Apr 17 $239 +$101 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ECSTATIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Pla Apr 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playoff Apr 02 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Mar 31 $58 +$50 +87%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 31 $40 +$97 +243%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston Mar 31 $90 −$88 -98%
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Dinamo Minsk Mar 30 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup Mar 27 $94 +$106 +113%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BIG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pl Mar 26 $160 −$160 -100%
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2026-03-21? Mar 25 $200 +$94 +47%
Alicante: Sebastian Ofner vs Alejandro Moro Canas Mar 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Miami Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Mar 20 $34 +$36 +104%
Miami Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Botic van de Zandschulp Mar 20 $60 +$107 +178%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-03-09? Mar 16 $107 +$63 +59%
Córdoba CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 2.5 Mar 03 $112 +$84 +75%
Chile Open: Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi Feb 28 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Young Blood vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Close Feb 26 $45 +$33 +72%
Dubai Tennis Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Karen Khachanov Feb 25 $65 +$106 +163%
Mexican Open: Alexander Zverev vs Corentin Moutet Feb 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-02-20? Feb 23 $52 +$43 +83%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO1) - Roman Imp Feb 23 $82 +$45 +54%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $74 −$74 -100%
Will VfL Bochum win on 2026-02-20? Feb 19 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leag Feb 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group St Feb 18 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Leo Team (BO3) - ESL Challenger Lea Feb 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Qatar Open: Marton Fucsovics vs Karen Khachanov Feb 17 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $110 +$106 +96%
Delray Beach Open: Nuno Borges vs Coleman Wong Feb 16 $110 −$110 -100%
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth win on 2026-02-20? Feb 16 $9 −$9 -100%
CD Castellón vs. RC Deportivo La Coruña: O/U 2.5 Feb 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will CF Pachuca win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $120 +$98 +82%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Feb 14 $120 +$111 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 14 $150 +$81 +54%
Heracles Almelo vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5 Feb 14 $105 −$105 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 57¢ $142 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 61¢ $142 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 42¢ $66 3d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY Infinite 40¢ $22 3d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff BUY K27 57¢ $132 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $112 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $122 8d
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag BUY Ursa 44¢ $81 8d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 17d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 50¢ $102 19d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY FaZe 68¢ $212 41d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B BUY Passion UA 33¢ $56 41d
LoL: Team Heretics vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifi BUY Team Heretics 50¢ $102 55d
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-05? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 60d
Will PFK CSKA Moskva win on 2026-04-21? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 62d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY TDK 69¢ $17 68d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY TDK 69¢ $17 68d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY TDK 67¢ $4 68d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs MANA eSports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group BUY TDK 70¢ $200 68d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $180 68d
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Playoff BUY Ursa 39¢ $6 81d
Grand Prix Hassan II: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 42¢ $90 83d
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Dinamo Minsk BUY HC Dynamo Moscow 45¢ $6 84d
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Dinamo Minsk BUY HC Dynamo Moscow 44¢ $4 84d
Counter-Strike: Omega vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe BUY G2 Ares 53¢ $5 84d
Counter-Strike: Omega vs G2 Ares (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe BUY G2 Ares 53¢ $53 84d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs BUY BetBoom Team 29¢ $40 84d
KHL: HC Dynamo Moscow vs. Dinamo Minsk BUY HC Dynamo Moscow 45¢ $5 84d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $170 87d
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BIG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pl BUY BIG 61¢ $160 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.54 · official $287.45 · 850 history records