Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:33:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7E 0x7e63…e35c other 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 194d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$376 (+2%) realized +$378 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days+$5
30 days+$131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 34% +$63
finance 23% +$185
economics 20% +$57
other 9% −$92
world 7% +$161
politics 5% +$14
sports 2% −$8
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 50% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 14 -25.8% -32.8% 43% 21% -2.8%
≤90d 34 -40.3% -46.0% 41% 9% -7.1%
all 50 -21.9% -29.3% 56% 10% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 10% -7.6%
10% -36.1% 6% -16.5%
15% -42.3% 6% -24.5%
20% -47.9% 4% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.89 per $1 lost it wins $2.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

194d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized+$378
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)50 / 70
History coverage194d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+33%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $13 $11 −$2 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$4 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $150 −$18 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $170 +$4 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $490 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $172 +$24 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -38%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $346 +$32 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 26 $78 +$10 +13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $272 +$104 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $14 −$3 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 15 $96 +$2 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 08 $170 +$12 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? May 05 $2,166 +$119 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 18 $765 +$36 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$17 -86%
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Apr 14 $1,899 +$24 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 23? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31? Apr 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 05 $128 +$4 +3%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Mar 27 $682 +$6 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 24 $888 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 23 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Mar 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 10 $651 +$14 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 07 $9 +$11 +122%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 06 $1,001 +$8 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 05 $5 +$6 +133%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $1,909 +$20 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 22 $2,854 +$45 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $1,262 +$18 +1%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 15 $117 −$11 -10%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Jan 14 $56 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $160 +$10 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jan 12 $155 +$13 +8%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $198 +$4 +2%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 m Dec 13 $87 +$8 +9%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 13 $136 −$21 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $133 +$2 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $218 +$11 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL No 36¢ $36 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 44¢ $132 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 58¢ $174 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $375 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $90 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $40 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $100 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 28¢ $31 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $70 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $148 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 9d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $475 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.20 · official $124.22 (match) · 767 history records