trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Under | 54¢ | 54¢ | $109 | $108 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? | No | 73¢ | 72¢ | $74 | $73 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Netherlands leading at halftime? | No | 66¢ | 66¢ | $69 | $68 | −$1 (-1%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score | Yes | 55¢ | 52¢ | $56 | $53 | −$3 (-5%) |
| Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) | Netherlands | 24¢ | 22¢ | $45 | $42 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | No | 99¢ | 0¢ | $127 | $0 | −$127 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jun 14 | $362 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? | May 26 | $362 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 26 | $373 | −$12 | -3% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 20? | May 22 | $373 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 20? | May 21 | $372 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | May 19 | $372 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 15? | May 16 | $372 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 13? | May 14 | $371 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 6? | May 12 | $370 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? | May 06 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 16? | May 06 | $366 | $0 | +0% |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10AM ET | Mar 16 | $314 | +$50 | +16% |
| Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, | Mar 06 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? | Mar 06 | $1 | +$1 | +54% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026? | Mar 06 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru | Mar 06 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? | Mar 06 | $190 | $0 | +0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | Feb 25 | $127 | −$127 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -0.3% | -9.8% | 75% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +1.1% | -8.5% | 87% | 7% | -8.6% |
| all | 21 | -1.3% | -10.7% | 86% | 10% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -10.7% | 10% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -19.2% | 5% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -27.0% | 5% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -34.2% | 5% | -34.6% |