Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:27:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7e5e…7315 sports 90 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (114 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$52,597 (+8%) realized +$83,088 · open −$30,491
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$7,080per market
Trades / day114.5pace
Fees−$7,647est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$43,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 29d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$27,641
other 12% −$4,241
world 2% +$2,908
crypto 1% −$787
politics 1% +$20
finance 1% −$4,350
tech 0% +$42
economics 0% +$207
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (114 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -49.9% -54.7% 34% 17% -14.3%
≤30d 81 -4.0% -13.1% 51% 33% -0.2%
≤90d 81 -4.0% -13.1% 51% 33% -0.2%
all 81 -4.0% -13.1% 51% 33% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover114.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 33% -0.2%
10% -21.4% 26% -9.8%
15% ← realistic here -29.0% 16% -18.5%
20% -36.0% 11% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$6,990) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +37% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
29.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,651 vs −$2,454 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$43,843
Realized+$83,088
Unrealized−$30,491
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$7,647
Open positions24
Markets (closed)81 / 90
History coverage29d ⚠
Avg bet$7,080
Trades / day114.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 94¢ $9,620 $9,450 −$170 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6,449 $5,588 −$861 (-13%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 95¢ 94¢ $4,730 $4,712 −$18 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 20¢ $2,200 $3,930 +$1,730 (+79%)
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? No 95¢ 66¢ $3,809 $2,642 −$1,167 (-31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $2,671 $2,520 −$151 (-6%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $5,800 $2,375 −$3,425 (-59%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $2,294 $2,360 +$65 (+3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2,078 $1,855 −$223 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1,314 $1,402 +$88 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $1,787 $1,251 −$536 (-30%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,185 $1,190 +$5 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1,160 $1,170 +$10 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1,303 $971 −$332 (-25%)
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $805 $807 +$2 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $1,300 $650 −$650 (-50%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $332 $375 +$44 (+13%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 22¢ $70 $278 +$207 (+295%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $122 $117 −$6 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 38¢ 0¢ $24,450 $32 −$24,417 (-100%)
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $631 $2 −$629 (-100%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $175 −$175 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 20 $225 −$225 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $3,640 −$3,609 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $35,959 +$130 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $42,602 +$43,989 +103%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $38,396 −$3,752 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28,170 −$8,059 -29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,275 +$401 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $3,312 +$5,888 +178%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,580 +$156 +10%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $15,213 +$132 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,171 +$130 +11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $1,652 −$1,652 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,660 +$340 +7%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Lindorfitos (BO3) - The International South Amer Jun 16 $57 +$6 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,250 +$750 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $5,373 +$69 +1%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $22,323 +$6,362 +28%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 15 $292 +$130 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19,480 −$280 -1%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $97 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10,275 −$865 -8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $11,800 −$2,039 -17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $33,826 +$7,923 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $4,527 −$4,527 -100%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $260 −$260 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,468 −$2,468 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $19,904 −$15,504 -78%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $145 −$145 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $390 −$390 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $501 −$501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 13 $1,471 −$1,471 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 9? Jun 13 $4,350 −$4,350 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2,250 −$2,250 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 13 $1,707 −$1,536 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $7,000 −$7,000 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 13 $800 −$800 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 13 $680 −$680 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4,016 −$2,056 -51%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $6,990 −$6,990 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6,875 −$6,875 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $2,910 +$829 +28%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7,300 +$2,700 +37%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,075 −$4,725 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4,620 19m
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $4,664 20m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $4,730 50m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $6 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $275 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $364 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $2,989 1h
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? BUY No 94¢ $98 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $117 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $16,248 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $117 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $117 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $17 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 37¢ $29 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $3,405 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $78 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $46 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $4,349 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $1,299 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $200 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $4,995 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $57 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $12 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $310 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $20 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $999 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $366 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 100¢ $136 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43,843.22 · official $43,813.10 (match) · 3500 history records