Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:19:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e5c…f217 other 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-0%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate18%22W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$78
politics 22% −$15
sports 20% −$14
crypto 9% −$2
economics 5% −$3
culture 4% −$4
world 4% −$11
finance 3% −$4
tech 3% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 16% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 60 -0.8% -10.2% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 108 -1.5% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.2%
all 124 -1.3% -10.7% 18% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses22 / 102
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage100d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 18 $25 $0 -2%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 17 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $191 −$1 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $167 −$1 -1%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $54 −$2 -3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $58 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $101 −$1 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $54 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $49 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 +0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $211 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 11 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $48 −$2 -4%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 10 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $184 −$3 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $50 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $268 −$2 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $266 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Will Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $16 −$1 -3%
Will Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $49 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $62 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $52 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $210 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $262 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $188 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 96¢ $25 2h
Will the Anaheim Ducks be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $25 10h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $57 10h
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $57 15h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 92¢ $45 16h
Will the Buffalo Sabres be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 97¢ $47 21h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 22h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 28h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ SELL No 95¢ $50 28h
Will the Montreal Canadiens be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champ BUY No 97¢ $51 35h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $60 36h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $58 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 97¢ $54 44h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $60 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $60 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $53 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $57 2d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 95¢ $39 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $40 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $40 3d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $40 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $54 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $49 3d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $49 4d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.13 · official $38.13 (match) · 460 history records