Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:38:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e5c…9554 crypto 1686 markets active 0h ago coverage 46d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$35,450 (+12%) realized −$159 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate81%1371W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$249
14 days+$401
30 days+$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 502 +0.2% -9.3% 82% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 1162 +0.3% -9.3% 81% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1686 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 1% -9.6%
all 1686 -0.1% -9.6% 81% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$17 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

46d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$159
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1371 / 315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1686 / 1686
History coverage46d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1686 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $313 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $313 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $312 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $310 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $309 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $308 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $307 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $312 −$45 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $311 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $311 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $310 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $309 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $307 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $306 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $306 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $342 −$6 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $306 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $306 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $308 −$20 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $309 −$14 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $309 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $308 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $308 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $309 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $307 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $305 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $313 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $313 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $312 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $310 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $309 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $309 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $308 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $308 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $307 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $307 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $307 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $267 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $312 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $311 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $311 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $310 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $310 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $310 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $309 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $309 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $309 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $308 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $308 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $308 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $310 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $307 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $307 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records