Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7E 0x7e5a…ebfe sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$50 (-2%) realized −$52 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$264
7 days+$314
14 days+$354
30 days+$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$371
other 33% +$246
crypto 4% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +55.9% +41.0% 100% 100% +35.7%
≤30d 7 +55.9% +41.0% 100% 100% +34.5%
≤90d 15 +2.6% -7.1% 73% 53% +8.8%
all 27 +31.3% +18.8% 67% 52% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.8% 52% -11.9%
10% +7.4% 44% -20.3%
15% -2.9% 37% -28.0%
20% -12.5% 37% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +54% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$100 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage175d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $300 $302 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $136 +$78 +57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $198 +$39 +20%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $122 +$76 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $72 +$50 +70%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $65 +$7 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $32 +$33 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 07 $11 +$3 +29%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 06 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? May 06 $7 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $43 −$43 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 16 $40 +$4 +10%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B Mar 19 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 19 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Mar 19 $97 −$97 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) Mar 19 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) Mar 19 $523 −$523 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Mar 19 $32 −$32 -100%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc Jan 22 $25 +$7 +28%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jan 22 $48 +$27 +56%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jan 18 $50 +$167 +334%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jan 18 $10 +$73 +732%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) Jan 18 $147 +$125 +85%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Dec 29 $114 +$79 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $136 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $198 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $72 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 90¢ $65 8d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ $32 9d
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 65¢ $14 45d
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY JD Gaming 77¢ $11 46d
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Gen.G 100¢ $11 46d
LoL: Gen.G vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 91¢ $10 46d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 47d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Bilibili Gaming 80¢ $43 66d
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend SELL Anyones Legend 99¢ $43 66d
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 90¢ $40 66d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q BUY Invictus Gaming 25¢ $10 83d
LoL: G2 Esports vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A BUY BNK FEARX 78¢ $100 93d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B SELL Gen.G 100¢ $100 93d
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO5) - First Stand Group B BUY Gen.G 99¢ $99 94d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Weibo Gaming 48¢ $5 106d
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner BUY LNG Esports 62¢ $97 130d
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $32 139d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Perseveranc BUY EDward Gaming 78¢ $25 150d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Invictus Gaming 64¢ $48 151d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs JD Gaming (BO3) BUY Anyones Legend 69¢ $523 154d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force 100¢ $217 154d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) SELL Nongshim Red Force 100¢ $83 154d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 23¢ $50 154d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) BUY Nongshim Red Force 12¢ $10 154d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.21 · official $302.21 (match) · 54 history records