Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e58…4309 sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-7%) realized −$174 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%67W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$125
14 days−$90
30 days−$168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$91
other 25% −$71
world 1% −$31
crypto 1% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -29.7% -36.4% 30% 30% -53.6%
≤30d 86 -17.9% -25.8% 36% 36% -18.6%
≤90d 160 -6.4% -15.4% 42% 41% -16.2%
all 160 -6.4% -15.4% 42% 41% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 41% -16.2%
10% -23.5% 39% -24.2%
15% -30.8% 33% -31.6%
20% -37.6% 32% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$12 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$174
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses67 / 93
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)160 / 165
History coverage69d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 160 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 58¢ $25 $23 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $90 −$6 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $6 +$5 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $4 +$1 +24%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 −$3 -31%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 +$20 +67%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 −$9 -25%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$1 -10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $35 −$10 -28%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $19 +$25 +130%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$15 +97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 −$1 -4%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 +$22 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$58 +282%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $32 −$25 -78%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $0 $0 +233%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $14 +$6 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $22 +$18 +82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$16 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$20 +81%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 +$23 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $57 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $62 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $2 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $20 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 56¢ $10 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 32¢ $10 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 55¢ $6 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 21¢ $5 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $41 6d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 80¢ $4 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $41 6d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes $5 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 46¢ $10 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $20 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $27 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 7d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 7d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 79¢ $10 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 7d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $10 7d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $9 7d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 32¢ $9 7d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $29 8d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 68¢ $27 8d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 69¢ $28 8d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.04 · official $53.04 (match) · 325 history records