Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:52:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e58…db00 other 139 markets active 3h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+7%) realized +$58 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%71W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$52
7 days+$121
14 days+$126
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$89
crypto 21% −$34
sports 12% +$21
world 7% −$30
politics 2% −$8
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% +$6
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +42.4% +28.8% 60% 56% +30.1%
≤30d 54 +10.9% +0.3% 52% 48% +3.5%
≤90d 54 +10.9% +0.3% 52% 48% +3.5%
all 133 -1.6% -10.9% 53% 44% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 44% -3.1%
10% -19.5% 38% -12.4%
15% -27.2% 34% -20.9%
20% -34.4% 27% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses71 / 62
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)133 / 139
History coverage396d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $46 +$56 +122%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$11 -73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +55%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 +$20 +83%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -87%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $39 +$4 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$26 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$4 +16%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$22 +365%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +52%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +874%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +55%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 $0 +31%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +153%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +148%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $102 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 13h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 22h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 23h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $46 23h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $45 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 37h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 40h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $37 40h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $25 2d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $9 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 82¢ $9 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 4d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.42 · official $109.43 (match) · 302 history records