Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e56…a324 crypto 217 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-2%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%115W / 100L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day71.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 215 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -12.8%
≤30d 215 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -12.8%
≤90d 215 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -12.8%
all 215 +3.3% -6.6% 53% 53% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 53% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.5% 53% -21.2%
15% -23.7% 53% -28.8%
20% -31.2% 53% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses115 / 100
Open positions2
Markets (closed)215 / 217
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day71.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 79¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.04 · official $2.04 (match) · 355 history records