Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:28:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e52…287b other 35 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+7%) realized +$136 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$78
14 days+$98
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$31
crypto 15% +$15
sports 11% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -3.3% -12.5% 52% 44% -4.0%
≤30d 33 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 39% -5.6%
≤90d 33 +1.9% -7.8% 45% 39% -5.6%
all 34 +2.2% -7.5% 47% 41% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 41% -5.5%
10% -16.4% 29% -14.5%
15% -24.4% 24% -22.8%
20% -31.8% 21% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$15 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage110d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 36¢ $129 $109 −$20 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $199 +$6 +3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $126 +$73 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $166 −$43 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $108 −$3 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $104 +$48 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$42 +69%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $9 −$3 -38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 −$7 -33%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +75%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +28%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 +$5 +24%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$12 -60%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$21 -84%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $44 +$7 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$12 +21%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$3 -11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$18 -66%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $34 +$30 +89%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $22 +$53 +246%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$1 -9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $13 −$1 -9%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $30 −$4 -12%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $142 −$30 -21%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $30 +$4 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $105 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $205 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $199 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $21 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $105 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 64¢ $105 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 25¢ $14 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $108 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $108 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $53 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 40¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $41 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.77 · official $108.77 (match) · 128 history records