Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7E 0x7e52…00f5 sports 498 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$16,951 (+16%) realized +$17,564 · open −$613
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate50%249W / 246L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$926est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,536
7 days+$10,431
14 days+$10,658
30 days+$6,278
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$9,364
other 19% +$12,706
world 14% −$7,026
crypto 3% −$535
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +38.5% +25.3% 64% 64% +33.0%
≤30d 122 +22.9% +11.2% 64% 52% +9.6%
≤90d 255 +22.4% +10.7% 57% 46% +12.2%
all 495 +16.0% +4.9% 50% 44% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 44% +4.5%
10% -5.1% 43% -5.5%
15% -14.3% 39% -14.7%
20% -22.7% 34% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$180 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$17,564
Unrealized−$613
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses249 / 246
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$926
Open positions3
Markets (closed)495 / 498
History coverage126d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 495 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $170 $75 −$95 (-56%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $180 $28 −$151 (-84%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $373 $7 −$367 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 244 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $416 +$1,140 +274%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $92 +$94 +102%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 −$75 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,382 +$1,420 +103%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $417 +$604 +145%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,150 +$568 +49%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $595 −$594 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $275 −$269 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $298 −$292 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $298 −$294 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $312 +$131 +42%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $289 +$70 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$20 +19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $613 −$611 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $714 −$700 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $614 −$600 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $514 −$500 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $356 +$197 +55%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $229 +$271 +118%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $244 +$211 +86%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $219 +$50 +23%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $300 +$90 +30%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $131 +$121 +92%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $199 +$180 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $138 +$155 +112%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $187 +$111 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $239 +$95 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $214 +$161 +75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $156 +$104 +67%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $272 +$107 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $222 −$222 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $188 +$109 +58%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $231 +$340 +147%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $108 +$159 +148%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $104 +$67 +64%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $108 +$102 +94%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $256 +$135 +53%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $155 −$155 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $195 −$195 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $178 −$175 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $105 −$105 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $306 +$1,483 +484%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $326 +$870 +267%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $107 +$61 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $203 +$42 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $184 −$180 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $1,499 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $20 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $3 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 54¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 93¢ $186 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $90 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $77 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $2,498 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 94¢ $939 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $82 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $160 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $22 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $4 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $4 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $5 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $50 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $16 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $40 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $3 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $44 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $36 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $44 2h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 87¢ $16 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.17 · official $110.17 (match) · 2472 history records