Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:45:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7E
0x7e50…2211
crypto · 30 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$4 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$6
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage66d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 29 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 100¢ $21 $27 +$6 (+29%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +30%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$8 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $14 +$5 +36%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Draw at halftime? May 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 15 $6 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +48%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 14 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 14 $1 $0 +2%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Mumbai Indians May 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-08 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open? Apr 08 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Andrey Esipenko end in a draw? Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 08 $14 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 08 $4 +$1 +23%
Solana Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 08 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 08 $10 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 37% +$13
crypto 37% +$5
other 23% −$8
weather 3% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $21 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 82¢ $19 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 24¢ $2 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $7 3h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $20 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $5 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $3 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 71¢ $3 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $17 18h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 19h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 36h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $3 40h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $20 40h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 96¢ $19 41h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 2d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 28d
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 28d
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 28d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 28d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 29d
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +25.4% +13.4% 67% 56% +2.4%
≤30d 21 -4.6% -13.7% 57% 48% -4.1%
≤90d 29 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 48% -10.8%
all 29 -4.0% -13.1% 62% 48% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 48% -10.8%
10% -21.4% 41% -19.3%
15% -29.0% 28% -27.1%
20% -36.0% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.44 · official $27.44 (match) · 64 history records