Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:23:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7E 0x7e4d…0c26 weather 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$163 (+2%) realized +$163 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate82%32W / 7L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$4
weather 22% +$2
economics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$3
other 4% +$1
sports 3% +$162
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 39 +5.2% -4.8% 82% 8% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 8% -7.4%
10% -13.9% 8% -16.3%
15% -22.2% 8% -24.4%
20% -29.9% 5% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×9.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×43.53 per $1 lost it wins $43.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized+$163
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses32 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage182d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $159 $159 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? May 15 $162 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 15 $344 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April May 13 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 21? May 13 $241 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 10? May 13 $299 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? Apr 02 $272 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? Mar 21 $132 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 17 $763 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17? Mar 17 $145 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 16? Mar 16 $148 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16? Mar 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $464 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on March 13? Mar 13 $111 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 12 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12? Mar 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 11? Mar 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $618 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 10 $695 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $104 +$96 +92%
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets Mar 07 $141 +$66 +47%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $190 by end of February? Mar 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 28 $557 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on Febru Feb 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on February 19? Feb 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 48-49°F on February Feb 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 1°C or below on February 3? Feb 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 2°C on February 3? Feb 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 70°F or higher on February 2? Feb 09 $28 $0 +0%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Feb 01 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Garidmagnai "⁠bLitz⁠" Byambasuren win the HLTV IGL of the Year aw Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Feb 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel "⁠FalleN⁠" Toledo win the HLTV IGL of the Year award Feb 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 40°C or higher on Janu Feb 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Feb 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Shahar "⁠flameZ⁠" Shushan win the HLTV Opener of the Year award Feb 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C or below on January 20? Feb 01 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $159 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $162 70d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or below on April 21? BUY No 100¢ $241 70d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April BUY No 100¢ $87 78d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $299 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $344 81d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $132 101d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $272 101d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $762 103d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $763 104d
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $145 104d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $148 105d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C or below on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $116 106d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $464 106d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $464 108d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $498 108d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $499 109d
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C or below on March 13? BUY No 100¢ $111 109d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $618 109d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $618 110d
Will the highest temperature in London be 7°C or below on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $39 110d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $695 110d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 59°F or below on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $59 111d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $695 111d
Trail Blazers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 68¢ $141 114d
Knicks vs. Nuggets BUY Knicks 52¢ $104 114d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $759 116d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $760 118d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $634 119d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $638 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.59 · official $669.59 (match) · 96 history records