Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:51:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e4c…c8c6 sports 134 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-6%) realized −$277 · open +$62
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%62W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days−$307
14 days−$240
30 days−$240
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$113
other 7% −$110
politics 1% +$34
crypto 0% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -4.0% -13.2% 51% 51% -21.1%
≤30d 126 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 49% -16.1%
≤90d 126 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 49% -16.1%
all 126 -5.9% -14.9% 49% 49% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 49% -16.1%
10% -23.0% 49% -24.1%
15% -30.5% 44% -31.4%
20% -37.3% 37% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$24 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized−$277
Unrealized+$62
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses62 / 64
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions8
Markets (closed)126 / 134
History coverage13d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 47¢ 100¢ $28 $60 +$32 (+113%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+69%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $15 $26 +$11 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 47¢ 76¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+61%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+72%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 59¢ 46¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-21%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $8 +$4 +55%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 20 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13 −$5 -41%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $17 +$12 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$20 +65%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$19 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $44 −$11 -26%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $45 +$18 +39%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $19 +$13 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $110 +$27 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $15 +$10 +67%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 19 $15 +$9 +57%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $196 −$195 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $70 +$26 +37%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $18 −$18 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $29 +$34 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$16 +62%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $140 +$34 +24%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -99%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $16 +$9 +55%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 +$10 +67%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$8 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$19 +63%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$12 +114%
Dota 2: RisingRage vs Estar Backs - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 47¢ $9 15m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $28 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 59¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 64¢ $8 4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $14 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $7 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 15h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $18 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $13 15h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $12 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $17 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 18h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $63 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 35¢ $21 19h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $33 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 58¢ $19 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $30 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $13 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 30¢ $2 22h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner BUY PlayTime 52¢ $11 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $21 23h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 55¢ $30 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 52¢ $11 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 81¢ $116 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $65 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 59¢ $15 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $177.29 · official $175.08 · 262 history records