Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7E 0x7e48…d2c3 sports 955 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate76%706W / 225L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day32.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$11
14 days−$9
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$52
other 19% −$24
crypto 16% +$35
finance 7% −$18
politics 3% +$4
tech 2% −$3
world 1% $0
weather 1% +$3
economics 0% +$3
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 228 +1.0% -8.6% 76% 62% -8.6%
≤30d 922 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 65% -9.9%
≤90d 931 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 65% -10.0%
all 931 -1.3% -10.7% 76% 65% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.7% 65% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -19.2% 45% -18.6%
15% -27.0% 25% -26.5%
20% -34.2% 9% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses706 / 225
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions24
Markets (closed)931 / 955
History coverage31d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day32.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Orange County? Yes 81¢ 98¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 82¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+21%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Los Angeles County? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5) New York Yankees 75¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 69¢ 72¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) Washington Nationals 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) Cincinnati Reds 76¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Miami Marlins 77¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) New York Mets 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lillestrøm SK vs. Viking FK end in a draw? No 90¢ 86¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals No 85¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals No 62¢ 59¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Under 63¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Lillestrøm SK win on 2026-05-30? No 82¢ 77¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 66¢ 54¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Club Always Ready vs. FC Universitario: O/U 3.5 Over 65¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 72¢ 54¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-25%)
Will SD Almeria achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? No 70¢ 43¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-39%)
Will Club Blooming win on 2026-05-23? Yes 80¢ 34¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-57%)
Notts County FC vs. Salford City FC: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? No 63¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 208 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 $0 -7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 $0 -3%
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $12 $0 -3%
XRP Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
BNB Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +3%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $4 +$1 +26%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Fabián Ruiz: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +60%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $4 +$2 +50%
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Brian Rodríguez: 1+ assists Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$3 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$3 +67%
Darwin Núñez: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 +$1 +34%
Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Omar Marmoush: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $4 +$3 +65%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Pedro Porro: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Martín Zubimendi: 1+ assists Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Gilson Benchimol: 3+ goals + assists Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +21%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$2 +54%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Second half draw? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$2 +8%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $4 $0 +12%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $4 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$4 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fortaleza EC vs. América FC end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5) BUY Washington Nationals 76¢ $4 1h
Martin Ødegaard: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) BUY Miami Marlins 77¢ $4 1h
Spread: New York Mets (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 76¢ $4 1h
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) BUY New York Mets 78¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Under 63¢ $4 1h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY No 62¢ $4 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? BUY No 63¢ $4 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 4¢ $0 5h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 53¢ $4 9h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 51¢ $4 9h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 51¢ $4 9h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 51¢ $4 9h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 51¢ $4 9h
Game Handicap: Hive (-1.5) vs G-Time (+1.5) BUY G-Time 51¢ $4 9h
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive - Game 2 Winner BUY Hive 51¢ $4 9h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $4 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 79¢ $4 10h
XRP Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 92¢ $5 11h
BNB Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 92¢ $4 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 11h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 79¢ $4 15h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY No 72¢ $4 20h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 80¢ $4 20h
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) BUY Athletics 80¢ $4 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Second half draw? BUY No 65¢ $4 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $4 21h
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-5.5) BUY Los Angeles Sparks 52¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.94 · official $83.97 (match) · 1722 history records