Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:09:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7E 0x7e47…b3d0 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,470 (+16%) realized +$1,504 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,446
7 days+$1,517
14 days+$1,684
30 days+$1,684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$885
other 38% +$534
crypto 6% +$240
world 3% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -1.2% -10.6% 31% 31% +12.4%
≤30d 72 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 29% +10.6%
≤90d 72 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 29% +10.6%
all 72 -9.8% -18.4% 29% 29% +10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 29% +10.6%
10% -26.2% 29% -0.0%
15% -33.3% 29% -9.7%
20% -39.9% 29% -18.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +22% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$70 · ×3.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$506
Realized+$1,504
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions5
Markets (closed)72 / 98
History coverage10d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 17¢ $190 $231 +$41 (+21%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 32¢ $150 $107 −$43 (-28%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 22¢ 10¢ $50 $24 −$26 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $57 −$56 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $305 +$464 +152%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $466 +$335 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $71 +$147 +206%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $36 −$35 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $45 −$44 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $186 −$181 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $21 +$83 +404%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -15%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $38 −$37 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $173 +$277 +160%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $405 +$270 +67%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $26 +$167 +650%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $556 +$345 +62%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $51 +$92 +180%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $355 +$304 +86%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $26 +$122 +477%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $51 +$104 +204%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 +$268 +262%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $246 −$240 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $358 −$350 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $406 −$400 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $153 +$268 +175%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$155 +152%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $72 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $41 2h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 22¢ $51 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $153 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $154 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $57 4h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 7h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $305 23h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 78¢ $103 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 28h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? AND Wil BUY 5¢ $51 28h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Japan win on 20 BUY 9¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $162 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 15¢ $21 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 28h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 30h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $505.95 · official $502.54 (match) · 164 history records